Long-term prospects of land value uplift in planned new urban centres: Measurement, modelling and predictions
Dr Tianren Yang
(University of Cambridge, Martin Centre of Architectural and Urban Studies, Department of Architecture)
Full entry title
Yang, T., 2021. Long-term prospects of land value uplift in planned new urban centres: Measurement, modelling and predictions (Doctoral thesis, University of Cambridge). Read here.
New subsidiary centres tend to be planned in currently low demand areas, where the potential of radical urban transformation is high, but the prima facie prospects of land value capture are poor. This research develops a spatial equilibrium framework to predict how sub-centre planning can lead to higher economic prospects of land value gains and improved lives for residents. Applying the model to Shanghai reveals that the annual land price increment will range from 0.5% for a purely residential development to 14.2% for an employment-oriented growth. Furthermore, economic and social trade-offs matter in where to locate these large-scale developments.